Google Search sends 23% of searches to the open web

For every 1,000 Google searches in the U.S., 232 clicks reach what SparkToro calls the open web, according to new data from Similarweb’s Clickstream Panel.

The report, published by SparkToro co-founder Rand Fishkin, found that 68% of searches in the US from January to April ended without a click. The 2024 report, based on Datos data, separately reported 360 open web clicks per 1,000 Google searches in the US.

What the numbers show

The data shows that post-search behavior goes in three directions:

1. 39% of search queries end without further action.
2. 29% result in a new search query in the Google search bar.
3. 32% generate a click.

Of those clicks, 66% lead searchers to pages on the open web, while 27% lead to Alphabet-owned sites and Google interfaces, including YouTube, Maps and AI Mode. The remaining 6% goes to paid ads.

Compared to 2024 data, the proportion of searches that resulted in at least one click fell from 41% to 32%. The 9.51 point decline represents a 22% decline, the largest change among the metrics tracked. Searches that led to further searches increased by 7 points over the same period.

Fishkin argues that the acceleration was largely driven by AI overviews, pointing to Ahrefs data on click declines. Based on this data, AI overviews appear in more than 20% of searches, with click-through rates when such an overview appears almost 60% lower.

The direction is consistent with other sources. Ahrefs’ separate traffic tracker recorded an 8-point decline in Google’s share of traffic to these sites between June 2025 and May 2026.

Paid clicks make up a larger share

Paid advertising’s share of all clicks increased from 1% in 2024 data to 6% in 2026.

Fishkin cautions against reading too much into the jump. Datos’ 2024 panel had a higher-than-average percentage of users using ad blockers that hid or minimized search ads. The actual wage figure in 2024 was likely higher, making the increase appear steeper than it was.

How this matches what Google says

Google has spent the last year arguing that AI capabilities don’t pull useful traffic from websites. Liz Reid, vice president of search, said organic click volume is “relatively stable” and that AI overviews largely eliminate “bounce clicks,” visits where users pick up a piece of information and leave. Google has not released any data to support either claim.

SparkToro’s data tracks clicks per search. Reid’s statements concern overall click volume, which can remain constant as query growth offsets a declining click-through rate. The panel data shows that the rate per search is falling. Only Google can check whether the overall volume is stable, but this is not the case.

About the data

The analysis uses Similarweb’s US desktop and mobile panel (January-April). SparkToro weighted the results as two-thirds mobile and one-third desktop. Fishkin says zero-click behavior is likely higher in the app than in browsers, but that doesn’t include searches in the Google mobile app

The 2016 and 2019 numbers come from the now-defunct Jumpshot Panel, the 2024 numbers come from Datos, and the 2026 numbers come from Similarweb. Fishkin calls the annual chart “a little bit apples and oranges.”

For transparency, SparkToro sells audience research software and Fishkin is publishing a book on zero-click marketing with co-author Amanda Natividad.

Why this is important

This report is a sign that traffic predictions based on older click-through rates need to be reviewed, and the 232 per 1,000 value gives you a concrete number for these conversations.

Fishkin writes that SEO is more important than ever, “it just isn’t going to get you as much traffic as it used to.” Instead, he points out categories that still benefit from SEO, such as: B. Brand searches, local businesses and high-intent transactional searches, which he attributes to Cyrus Shepard’s analysis.

Looking ahead

AI mode is the variable to watch. It accounted for 0.34% of searches in this data set, but according to Google, usage has surpassed 1 billion monthly users and searches are more than doubling every quarter.

SparkToro will release zero-click numbers for Europe, the UK and Canada in the coming days. He plans to repeat the analysis within 6 to 12 months.

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